Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius says 10‑week Hormuz closure only moderately hurt growth, citing limited oil price rise and demand shifts.
Goldman expects Brent to stay stable short‑term, then drop to around $90/barrel by year‑end as the Strait reopens by late June.
Goldman lowered 12‑month US recession odds by 5 points to 25%, citing 2.5% Q1 sales growth and a 115,000 April payroll increase.
Hatzius warns recession risk stays 5 points above levels, with consumers facing refunds, gas prices, slowing wages and a 3.6% saving rate.