Overview

Barclays and Berenberg have issued bullish coverage on Gaztransport et Technigaz (GTT), the French licensor of LNG carrier containment systems.

Broker Ratings and Targets

Barclays initiated coverage with an overweight rating and set a price target of €275 per share. Berenberg upgraded the stock from hold to buy, raising its target to €245 from €190.

Orderbook and Backlog

At the end of June 2026 GTT’s orderbook was valued at €1.9 billion, comprising 306 orders: 272 LNG carriers, 22 very large or ultra‑large ethane carriers, three floating storage and regasification units, four floating LNG units and five on‑shore storage projects. The backlog is projected to generate approximately €300 million of revenue in the second half of 2026, €655 million in 2027 and €603 million in 2028, per Barclays’ guidance.

Market Share and Patent Portfolio

GTT supplies roughly 85 % of the global LNG carrier fleet with its membrane technology and has secured all new LNG carrier containment‑system orders since 2016, supported by more than 3,600 patents and partnerships with South Korean and Chinese shipyards.

Order Forecasts

Barclays forecasts 500‑600 LNG carrier orders for GTT by 2035, at least 25 % above the company’s own estimate, based on 120 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of liquefaction capacity sanctioned in 2025 and the first half of 2026. The sanctioned capacity includes 84 mtpa in 2025 and 37 mtpa in H1 2026. Barclays also projects global LNG demand to rise by 335 mtpa between 2025 and 2040, reaching 760 mtpa.

Berenberg’s model is more aggressive, projecting 650 LNG carrier orders over the next decade versus management’s guidance of about 550. It attributes the higher number to roughly 300 vessels required for projects under construction, about 150 orders from potential new project sanctions, and around 200 replacement orders as older vessels become uneconomical.

Fleet Replacement Dynamics

Barclays calculated that more than 250 carriers will be over 20 years old by 2030, increasing to over 500 by 2040. Berenberg identified 198 vessels at near‑term scrapping risk due to tightening environmental regulations and fuel‑cost differentials; modern vessels consume almost 50 % less fuel than early‑2000s steam‑turbine ships.

Financial Projections

Barclays expects revenue to grow at an 8.8 % compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2028, with adjusted EBITDA margins remaining between 66 % and 67 %. It estimates a 2027 return on average capital employed above 100 % and a return on equity around 62 %. Free cash flow is projected at €459 million in 2027 and €579 million in 2028. The asset‑light licensing model converts 80‑85 % of EBITDA into free cash flow, and management has pledged to distribute at least 80 % of net income as dividends, implying a 2026 dividend yield of roughly 4.3 %.

Barclays’ 2028 EBIT estimate is €658 million, about 16 % above the €566 million consensus, and its 2028 revenue estimate of €1.03 billion is roughly 19 % above consensus. Berenberg’s 2028 revenue estimate of €910 million is about 2.4 % above the €889 million consensus.

GTT Marine Division

Both brokerages highlighted GTT Marine, the digital shipping division formed from the acquisition of Ascenz Marorka, Vessel Performance Solutions and Danelec for €194 million in 2025. The division contributed approximately 8 % of first‑half 2026 sales. Berenberg models a 10 % compound annual revenue growth rate for GTT Marine through 2030, with EBITDA margins expanding to nearly 26 %.