HSBC EMEA Stock Selection Overview

HSBC has released its latest set of stock ideas for the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, concentrating on companies it believes possess strong earnings‑growth potential, improving capital returns and structural tailwinds. The picks span telecommunications, materials, real estate and energy‑infrastructure sectors and are presented as opportunities for institutional investors.

MTN Group (South Africa)

HSBC projects MTN Group to achieve approximately 18% revenue growth and 24% EBITDA growth in 2026, which would translate into a 36% year‑over‑year increase in earnings per share. The company’s dividend policy targets a return of 40‑60% of free cash flow to equity, and buybacks are now explicitly considered at up to 20% of free cash flow. Operations in Nigeria and Ghana have not suffered material cost or capex impacts from current geopolitical conflicts. HSBC notes the proposed IHS acquisition as strategically de‑risking and immediately accretive. In the most recent update, MTN reported a 9.7% decline in first‑quarter service revenue, attributing the drop to currency devaluations in Nigeria, and is discussing the sale of its stake in a Ghana‑based cell‑tower joint venture.

SABIC Agri‑Nutrients (Saudi Arabia)

The firm offers direct exposure to higher urea pricing, with nitrogen demand viewed as more resilient than phosphates and potash. HSBC expects nitrogen prices to settle at a higher post‑crisis base due to ongoing supply shocks. The SAFCO 6 and 7 projects will add roughly 3.8 million tonnes of blue ammonia and urea capacity, compared with the existing 4.8 million tonnes, supporting medium‑term volume growth. SABIC Agri‑Nutrients posted a 22% year‑on‑year decline in first‑quarter net profit, driven by lower average selling prices, while sales volumes remained stable.

ALDAR Properties (UAE)

ALDAR delivered first‑quarter 2026 EBITDA that beat expectations, growing 22% year‑over‑year, with investment‑adjusted EBITDA up 18% on the back of high occupancy and rental growth. The company maintains a record backlog of AED 72.1 billion and a replenished land bank with a gross development value of AED 61 billion, providing strong earnings visibility. Net profit rose 15% in the quarter, and ALDAR announced a joint‑venture acquisition of Al Hamra Mall for AED 410 million.

Alpha Bank (Greece)

HSBC expects Alpha Bank to deliver the strongest earnings‑per‑share compound annual growth rate among Greek banks, estimated at roughly 17%. The full‑year consolidation of Astrobank in 2026 is projected to lift earnings, while the addition of Axia investment‑banking and the Altius and Universal insurance operations should accelerate fee growth and reduce reliance on net interest margin. Alpha Bank recently completed the sale of a non‑performing loan portfolio with a gross book value of €0.5 billion and reaffirmed its full‑year 2026 guidance.

Sibanye Stillwater (South Africa)

EBITDA for Sibanye Stillwater is expected to grow 48% year‑over‑year in 2026 under HSBC’s price assumptions, reflecting significant operating leverage in precious‑metals. The company’s leverage has improved to 0.59 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA, and dividends have been reinstated. Exposure to lithium through Keliber adds longer‑term growth optionality. Jefferies analysts upgraded Sibanye to “Buy” from “Hold”, citing a more positive outlook for platinum‑group‑metal prices and progress in deleveraging.

Astor Enerji (Turkey)

U.S. export orders to Astor Enerji have reached approximately USD 1 billion year‑to‑date, with the United States now accounting for two‑thirds of the company’s estimated backlog. HSBC forecasts revenue to more than double from roughly USD 1.1 billion in 2026 to about USD 2.4 billion in 2028, while EBITDA margins are expected to improve from the low‑30% range toward the high‑30% range.

Marafiq (Saudi Arabia)

Marafiq anticipates receiving tariff‑discount compensation beginning in the second quarter and continuing into the third quarter of 2026. In early May 2026 the company disclosed discussions about selling power output on a cost‑plus basis, a move intended to mitigate margin compression arising from recent fuel‑price hikes.

---