Iran War's Limited U.S. Economic Impact

Analyst Stephanie Roth notes U.S. consumer spending and Q1 GDP remain strong, supported by $188 bn fiscal stimulus and AI capex boom.
Wolfe estimates AI‑related domestic capex at $582 bn annualized (1.8% of GDP), contributing ~25% of Q1 nominal GDP growth; total AI investment $770 bn.
War’s impact limited so far, but risks include a $30‑35 rise in crude prices pushing gasoline above $5/gal, AI investment slowdown, tighter financial conditions.
Higher gasoline costs ($20‑30 bn burden) are offset by $35 bn tax refunds, keeping net consumer impact modest.