Stock Market Impact: Ithaca Energy Plc shares jumped over 6% on Monday after Jefferies raised its price target by 67% to 350p from 210p, retaining a “buy” rating.
Listed Companies and Sectors: The target is based on a net asset value of 238p per share and an EV/EBITDA valuation of 463p using a 4.75x multiple (up from 4.5x) applied to average 2026‑27 estimates. Eni holds a 35.9% stake following the April 2024 business combination. Production guidance was trimmed to 125,706 boe/d for 2026 (‑7%) and 135,903 boe/d for 2027 (‑6%), with full‑year 2026 range of 120,000‑130,000 boe/d. Media reports cite discussions between BP and Ithaca on a UK North Sea deal that could almost double the current ~120k boe/d production.
Investment Flows: Analysts note the possibility of an Ithaca equity placing; the stock trades at a premium to the September 2025 placing price of 213.75p (issued at a 3% discount). A placing could improve the company’s free float, currently 13.6%.
Financial Forecasts: 2026 revenue estimate raised 22% to $3.61 billion, EBITDAX increased 30% to $2.62 billion, and free cash flow lifted 79% to $952 million (15% FCF yield at current price). Net profit swings to $671.9 million in 2026 from a $84.1 million loss in 2025 (which missed the prior $41.3 million estimate by >300%). Net debt is projected to fall 27% to $782.7 million by end‑2026 from $1.26 billion at end‑2025. The 2026 dividend per share is estimated at $0.28, up 36% from $0.21, with dividend guidance of 30% of post‑tax cash flow ($470‑$520 million, expected >$500 million). The company trades at an EV/2P reserves multiple of $17.80 per barrel, second highest among 18 listed E&P peers (behind Aker BP at $20.60, peer average $9.20). The 12‑month upside scenario target is 450p and downside 165p, giving an upside‑to‑downside ratio of 3.03‑to‑1.
Interest Rates, Inflation, Liquidity: No references in the article.
Fiscal or Monetary Policy: No references in the article.
