J.P. Morgan Upgrades Genmab A/S
J.P. Morgan has upgraded biotechnology company Genmab A/S to an "overweight" rating from "neutral" and increased its price target to DKr3,500, up from the previous DKr2,050. The brokerage cited the anticipated positive outcome of the November interim analysis of Genmab’s late‑stage head‑and‑neck cancer drug, petosemtamab.
The firm expects the interim results to deliver an overall response rate (ORR) of at least 40% in first‑line head‑and‑neck cancer patients, noting that the statistical hurdle is closer to a response rate in the low 30% range. The readout will cover roughly 300 of the originally planned 500 patients. An earlier Phase II trial of 45 patients showed a 63% response rate, but J.P. Morgan cautioned that the larger sample size, a potentially lower response among HPV‑positive patients, and a reduced proportion of oral‑cavity patients (about 10 percentage points less) could cause the observed rate to fall.
Based on the data, J.P. Morgan raised petosemtamab’s peak‑sales forecast to $5 billion, double the prior $2.5 billion estimate, assuming a larger share of the head‑and‑neck cancer market. The forecast allocates $3.5 billion to head‑and‑neck cancer and $1.6 billion to a colorectal cancer indication, for which data are expected in 2029.
For Genmab’s other pipeline assets, the firm increased the peak‑sales forecast for Rina‑S to $4 billion from $3.4 billion, reflecting Phase III efficacy in second‑line PROC patients on both progression‑free and overall survival endpoints. The peak‑sales forecast for Epkinly, a first‑line DLBCL therapy, was lifted to $2.5 billion from $1.4 billion, driven by a 51% progression‑free survival benefit observed at the interim analysis. Detailed Epkinly data are slated for presentation at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting on December 12‑15.
J.P. Morgan also raised Genmab’s revenue outlook for the 2026‑2030 period by 3‑17%, reflecting higher projected 2030 sales of $2 billion for Epkinly (up from $1.3 billion) and a $1.1 billion peak for Rina‑S (up from $0.7 billion). The 2027 adjusted earnings‑per‑share estimate was increased to $15.48 from $11.38.
The brokerage highlighted two primary risks: a potential failure of the petosemtamab Phase III trial and accelerated competition in both the PROC and head‑and‑neck cancer markets that could erode the projected peak‑sales figures.