Jefferies Downgrades Belimo Holding AG to Hold
Jefferies analysts downgraded Belimo Holding AG from a "Buy" to a "Hold" rating on 22 June 2026, citing that the Swiss building‑controls maker’s valuation is approaching historic peak levels after a strong share‑price rally in recent weeks. The downgrade prompted an immediate decline of more than 2% in Belimo’s share price.
The brokerage simultaneously raised its price target to CHF 1,035, up from the previous target of CHF 1,013. This new target implies a potential upside of roughly 7% and corresponds to a target enterprise‑value‑to‑EBIT multiple of 38×, compared with the current trading multiple of about 36×. Both the 1‑year and 3‑year historical peaks for the multiple were 41× and 43× respectively, indicating limited room for further multiple expansion.
Jefferies expects Belimo’s first‑half 2026 results to be materially better than the management’s guidance, which had projected a 20% EBIT margin. The firm forecasts first‑half sales growth of 16% and an EBIT margin of 22%, aligning with consensus expectations. For the second half of the year, Jefferies anticipates margins to be 290 basis points higher year‑on‑year, leading to a full‑year EBIT margin of 21.8%, up from its prior estimate of 21.1% and slightly above the consensus forecast of 21.7%.
The analysts highlighted a multi‑year opportunity for Belimo in liquid‑cooling penetration across AI‑focused data centres, but warned that most of the volume upside is already priced in. They identified execution risks linked to capex deployment, including emerging bottlenecks such as grid access, power availability, equipment and labour constraints, as well as community push‑backs, which could curb further margin expansion.
On the earnings side, Jefferies raised its 2026 earnings estimates by 2‑3% after a stronger‑than‑expected first half, now expecting an EBIT margin of 21.8% versus the earlier 21.1% projection.
Overall, while Jefferies continues to view the underlying market potential positively, it concluded that the upside potential for Belimo is now limited given the valuation’s proximity to historic peaks, normalising earnings growth, and execution risks in end‑market deployment.