Jefferies Highlights Selective Buying Opportunities Across European Energy After Iran Conflict

Jefferies, in a Reuters‑sourced commentary dated 11‑07‑2026, notes that European energy equities have shown a pronounced split since the Iran‑related conflict erupted in late February. Companies perceived as direct beneficiaries of higher oil and gas prices have posted strong gains, while several large‑cap names remain below what Jefferies believes their fundamentals justify.

Integrated Oil Companies – Winners and Oversold Picks

  • Neste Oyj (LON:0O46) has been the sector’s standout, rallying 33 % since the conflict began, driven by stronger diesel prices and supportive renewable‑fuel regulations that have lifted earnings expectations.
  • Repsol (LON:0NQG) advanced 17 %, with Jefferies citing a potential upgraded share‑buyback programme and improving opportunities in Venezuela.
  • Equinor ASA (LON:0M2Z) climbed 13 %, benefitting from firmer European gas prices and a clearer strategic outlook.
  • Shell PLC (LON:SHEL) is flagged as an “oversold” opportunity despite a modest recent price dip; Jefferies points to the ARC Resources asset acquisition that extends reserve life and strengthens the case for a final investment decision on Shell’s Canada LNG project.
  • TotalEnergies SE (LON:TTEF) is also described as oversold, with its diversified portfolio helping to offset Middle‑East risks.
  • Ithaca Energy PLC (LON:ITH) is highlighted for its flexibility to pursue acquisitions, making it another candidate for value‑oriented investors.

Exploration & Production – Notable Performers and Undervalued Names

  • Vår Energi rose 15 %, supported by expectations of extraordinary dividends and long‑term production growth.
  • Tullow Oil gained 11 % after completing a refinancing programme and extending debt maturities.
  • Serica Energy, Harbour Energy, and Kosmos Energy are considered oversold despite improving balance sheets, stronger liquidity, and progress on strategic projects.

Oilfield Service Companies – Potential Upside

Jefferies identifies a set of oilfield service firms that have underperformed relative to the broader market but face limited direct disruption from the Middle‑East conflict and maintain healthy order pipelines:

  • Maire, Technip Energies, GTT, and TechnipFMC are singled out as companies that could benefit if regional reconstruction spending accelerates once geopolitical tensions ease.

Market Narrative

The brokerage argues that the wide dispersion in share‑price performance reflects an ongoing investor debate over which companies deserve a geopolitical premium and which have been unfairly left behind. This divergence creates selective buying opportunities across the European energy sector, according to Jefferies.