Analyst Note – Jefferies Raises Price Targets for ASML and STMicroelectronics
Jefferies announced on 2 July 2026 that it has increased its price target for ASML Holding to €1,560, up from €1,260, and its target for STMicroelectronics to €82, up from €74, while maintaining a “buy” rating on both securities.
The brokerage attributes the revisions to upgraded earnings estimates and a broader re‑rating across the European semiconductor peer group. It highlighted that European semiconductor stocks posted a 69 % gain in the second quarter of 2026, with the SOX index climbing 88 % through the period. Analog‑focused companies outperformed the broader semiconductor‑capital‑equipment segment, led by Soitec (+120 %), STMicroelectronics (+115 %) and Infineon Technologies (+102 %).
ASML Forecasts and Valuation
Jefferies projects ASML’s second‑quarter 2026 revenue at €8.79 billion with a gross margin of 52 %, both in line with consensus estimates and company guidance. The firm now expects full‑year revenue to be in the €38 billion‑€42 billion range, up from the prior €36 billion‑€40 billion guidance. The new target price is based on an FY27 price‑to‑earnings multiple of 36× and an enterprise‑value‑to‑EBITDA multiple of 28×. Management commentary on low‑NA EUV system shipments for 2027 is expected to centre on an anticipated shipment volume of roughly 90 systems.
STMicroelectronics Forecasts and Valuation
For STMicroelectronics, Jefferies forecasts second‑quarter revenue of $3.47 billion, matching consensus, and an adjusted gross margin of 35.3 %. Full‑year 2026 revenue is projected at $14.47 billion, representing a 23 % increase year‑on‑year, with a gross margin of 36.1 %. The revised target price reflects a 31× FY27 earnings‑per‑share multiple and an enterprise‑value‑to‑sales multiple of 4.8×. The broker now expects first‑half growth guidance for the second half of the year to be around 20 % half‑on‑half, up from the earlier ~15 % outlook, citing stronger‑than‑expected data‑centre revenue.
Re‑rating Multiples and Sector Valuations
During the quarter, STMicroelectronics’ price‑to‑earnings multiple was re‑rated upward by 44 %, Infineon’s by 65 % and ASML’s by 31 %. ASML, ASM International and VAT are currently trading at their peak multiples, while STMicroelectronics and Infineon are trading well above their historical peaks.
Additional Price Target Adjustments
Jefferies also raised its price target for ASM International to €780 from €670, for VAT to 560 Swiss francs from 465 Swiss francs, and for Melexis to €94 from €82.
Outlook and Cautionary Note
The brokerage expects further earnings upgrades over the next six to seven quarters as the analog up‑cycle gains momentum, but cautions that additional re‑rating may be limited in the second half of 2026 due to elevated valuation multiples across the sector.