Jefferies Raises 2026 Commodity Inflation to 2.1%

Jefferies lifted its 2026 commodity inflation forecast to 2.1% YoY, a 90‑basis‑point increase from April, citing Middle East tensions.
Strait of Hormuz traffic is down to ~5% of normal, driving freight, rerouting and insurance costs across grains, oilseeds, fertilizers and packaging.
For H2‑2026, 69% of commodities show inflation, with milk (+45%), soybean oil (+40%), hard red wheat (+34%) and soft red wheat (+22%).
Mondelez, Hershey and Kraft Heinz cite higher energy and procurement costs; Egypt warns of lower wheat yields from fertilizer supply disruptions.