Jefferies upgrades Fincantieri to "buy" with a €19 price target, implying roughly 41% upside from the €13.50 share price.
Fincantieri posted a record 2025 backlog of €63.2 bn, net profit of €117 m, order intake of €20.3 bn, and completed a €500 m rights issue.
Jefferies forecasts EBITDA rising from €700.9 m in 2026 to €1.25 bn by 2030, with margins improving to 10% and defense revenue CAGR of 18% through 2030.
Net debt/EBITDA is expected to fall from 2.6× to 1× by 2030, supported by €2.4 bn cash flow covering €1.9 bn capex; dividends may resume from 2028.