JPMorgan Downgrades Nike to Underweight
JPMorgan Chase & Co downgraded Nike Inc (ticker NKE) to Underweight from Neutral in a research note released on 4 August 2026. Analyst Matthew Boss indicated that recent management access and fieldwork clarified that the "Win Now" initiatives pursued through the end of calendar 2026 will continue to affect Nike’s profit and loss statement into the second half of fiscal 2027 and throughout fiscal 2028.
Revenue Headwinds
In Greater China, Nike plans to reset its online marketplace beginning January 2027. JPMorgan characterises this as an "unmitigated" revenue headwind exceeding $1 billion annually, representing roughly 20 % of the region’s revenue.
In North America, a wave of U.S. store closures is expected to generate a headwind that will persist through the first half of fiscal 2028.
Earnings Estimates and Price Target
JPMorgan lowered its fiscal 2027 earnings‑per‑share (EPS) estimate to $1.55, which is about 10 % below the Street consensus, and its fiscal 2028 EPS estimate to $1.72, roughly 20 % below consensus. The firm revised its price target for Nike to $40, down from $47, based on an implied multiple of approximately 21× the calendar 2028 EPS estimate.
Outlook and Category Context
The bank warned that the Street is "mis‑modeled" for the second half of fiscal 2027, where consensus expects an earnings acceleration that JPMorgan does not anticipate. It framed fiscal 2028 as a "stabilisation" year rather than a growth year.
JPMorgan also noted that the global sports apparel and footwear category is increasingly maturing, with North American growth projected to slow to 3 %. The bank expects Nike to outline a three‑year strategic plan at its November investor day, targeting double‑digit operating margins by fiscal 2030.