Keybanc Analyst Note – Celanese Corp (NYSE:CE)
Keybanc has identified Celanese Corporation as its top investment idea within the U.S. Chemicals & Agriculture sector, citing a successful turnaround strategy and improving market fundamentals. The firm upgraded its price target to $59, up from the prior $57, based on stronger 2027 earnings forecasts and attractive valuation metrics.
The analyst projects EBITDA to remain relatively flat around $2.1 billion over the next three years, with specific estimates of $2.141 billion for 2026, $2.109 billion for 2027, and $2.153 billion for 2028. While the Acetyl Chain segment may face margin compression due to added Chinese capacity and a flatter cost curve, the Engineered Materials segment is expected to contribute an additional $40 million in earnings in 2027.
Deleveraging is a key driver of earnings per share growth. Keybanc forecasts EPS of $6.16 for 2026, $6.25 for 2027, and $6.85 for 2028, supported by an estimated $40 million year‑over‑year reduction in interest expense.
Free cash flow generation remains robust. Adjusted free cash flow for 2026 is expected in the $750 million to $800 million range, with Keybanc projecting $793 million for 2026, $812 million for 2027, and $855 million for 2028. The firm suggests that the long‑term baseline free cash flow target could be raised above $800 million.
Quarterly guidance for Q4 2026 exceeds prior expectations, with Acetyl Chain EBITDA guidance of $265 million to $295 million and Engineered Materials EBITDA guidance of $265 million to $285 million.
Valuation remains appealing at 7x EV/EBITDA and a 16% free cash flow yield based on 2027 estimates.