MATCH Act Threatens ASML Revenue 14%

The U.S. proposes the MATCH Act to tighten export controls on critical semiconductor equipment, especially deep‑ultraviolet immersion lithography.
The legislation mandates identification of tools and a deny‑by‑default licensing regime, extending U.S. jurisdiction to foreign‑made gear if allies fail to align.
ASML, with DUV immersion tools ~29% of 2025 China sales, could face 14‑15% revenue loss and 16‑17% EBIT decline under a ban.
Demand from non‑China markets, fueled by AI and memory chip investments, may partially offset hit, but export controls stay a growth factor.