Micron Technology Upgrade to Buy
New Street Research issued an analyst note on 14 August 2026 upgrading Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) to a Buy recommendation and setting a price target of $1,250 per share. The firm argued that the current rally diverges from the traditional boom‑and‑bust memory cycle.
The note highlighted that Micron’s share price has appreciated more than ten‑fold since its low in April 2025, while the company’s production value, proxied by cost of goods sold (COGS), has risen only about 25 % over the same period, indicating a decoupling of price performance from cost growth.
Looking ahead, New Street projects that by the end of 2030 Micron will hold over $600 billion in cash on its balance sheet and generate annual free cash flow exceeding $150 billion, which the analysts described as “peak numbers.” In a modeled four‑year down‑cycle beyond 2030, the firm expects a trough free‑cash‑flow burn of roughly $18 billion and a sustained generation of more than $100 billion each year.
The research series, initiated in July, assumes that memory demand will continue to accelerate, driven largely by artificial‑intelligence (AI) workloads that are expected to account for two‑thirds of the overall mix. New Street forecasts a 15 % compound annual growth rate in memory demand beyond 2030, compared with a 10 % historical average over the past two decades.
On valuation, New Street noted that memory has traditionally traded at three‑ to six‑times COGS throughout cycles, but it argues that high‑bandwidth memory commands a premium because it is structurally less cyclical than commodity DRAM. Applying this premium yields an implied market capitalization for Micron of $2 trillion to $3 trillion by 2030.