Mizuho’s Contrarian Bullish Thesis on Broadcom Ahead of September 2 Earnings

Mizuho TMT sector specialist Jordan Klein issued a bullish note on Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ: AVGO) as the company approaches its fiscal earnings release scheduled for September 2, 2026. The recommendation comes despite the stock having fallen mid‑teens over the past two weeks, a decline that Klein views as an over‑extension of negative sentiment.

Klein’s thesis rests on three pillars: a historically strong earnings track record, deep‑seated market pessimism, and an expectation that CEO Hock Tan will actively counter the prevailing bear narrative. He highlights that Broadcom has maintained a 30‑quarter streak without posting two consecutive disappointing quarters; in fact, it has been seven full years since the stock traded down after back‑to‑back earnings, a period during which the share price has not experienced a double‑quarter decline.

The analyst positions the current price level at roughly $370, arguing that the combination of a severe drawdown and the near‑unbroken earnings streak creates an asymmetric risk‑reward profile favoring the upside. Klein does not anticipate a dramatic 25% price surge in the immediate term but expects more upside than downside from the $370 level.

Competitive dynamics also feature prominently. Recent earnings calls from NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) emphasized accelerated out‑year revenue growth, which Klein believes will pressure Broadcom’s management to respond decisively. He expects Tan and his team to neutralize the Google ASIC share‑loss narrative by providing bullish growth projections and detailing AI revenue opportunities for fiscal years 2027 and 2028. No specific revenue figures for those years were disclosed in the note.

Klein characterizes the broader market consensus as capitulating, noting that many investors believe “nothing Hock can say on the call will refute the bear thesis around share loss to Google.” This perceived lack of defensive commentary fuels his conviction that the stock is oversold.

Technical considerations further amplify the potential impact of the earnings release: historically, Broadcom’s post‑earnings price moves are 2‑3 times larger than those of NVIDIA, suggesting that any guidance or commentary could generate outsized market reactions relative to sector peers.

Investors will be watching for two specific disclosures from Broadcom’s earnings call: (1) any quantification of the Google custom ASIC relationship moving forward, and (2) forward revenue guidance for FY27‑28 AI opportunities. A stronger‑than‑expected guide or explicit rebuttal of the share‑loss thesis would serve as the primary upside catalyst, whereas a second consecutive soft quarter or lack of AI revenue visibility could extend the current mid‑teen drawdown.

Mizuho’s formal rating and price target for Broadcom were not disclosed in the note, and while Klein continues to favor NVIDIA as his top semiconductor pick, he positions Broadcom as a secondary, longer‑horizon opportunity.

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