In a client note dated Friday, Mizuho’s TMT sector specialist Jordan Klein updated the firm’s view on Chinese memory maker CXMT, arguing that concerns about a flood of DRAM supply and aggressive price cuts are overstated. Mizuho estimates CXMT’s DRAM bit supply will increase by 13% year‑over‑year in 2027, which is below the broader industry’s projected 21% growth, leaving CXMT with an estimated 8% share of the global DRAM market. The analyst projects a compound annual growth rate of 24% for CXMT over the 2026‑2028 period, aligning with the overall DRAM industry’s pace and indicating no reckless expansion to capture market share through low pricing.
Mizuho cites several constraints on CXMT’s ability to scale supply rapidly. Applied Materials and Lam Research halted servicing of CXMT’s existing equipment in March 2026, and much of the equipment is aging, with many tools already ten years old and due for a refresh and production‑line upgrade. The firm also flags yield pressure arising from node transitions scheduled for 2027 and highlights the absence of extreme‑ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools as a major limitation.
Additionally, the Chinese government is directing CXMT to allocate a larger portion of its capacity to high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) rather than conventional DRAM, which further reduces the risk of oversupply. Klein notes that CXMT lags significantly in HBM technology and does not sell to non‑China hyperscalers, limiting its potential impact on global DRAM pricing dynamics.