Overview

Mizuho Securities Asia upgraded its outlook for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) by increasing the projected monthly CoWoS (chip‑on‑wafer‑on‑substrate) packaging capacity to 140,000 units in 2026 and 190,000‑200,000 units in 2027, up from its earlier estimates of 120,000 and 170,000‑180,000 respectively. The revision reflects a sharply higher expectation for AI‑driven server CPU demand.

Customer‑Specific CoWoS Volumes

  • For Nvidia Corp, Mizuho now expects 630,000 CoWoS units in 2026, rising to 1,005,000 units in 2027, driven by the Vera CPU program and the Rubin architecture ramp‑up.
  • Broadcom Inc’s 2027 estimate was adjusted down slightly to 425,000 units from 450,000.
  • MediaTek’s 2027 forecast was nearly doubled to 180,000 units from 93,000, reflecting stronger demand for Google’s TPU.

Advanced Node Capacity Projections

  • TSMC’s N3 node monthly capacity is projected at 170,000 units for 2026 and 200,000 units for 2027.
  • N2 capacity is forecast at 90,000 units in 2026, 150,000 units in 2027, and 200,000 units in 2028.
  • The A14 node is expected to reach 15,000 units per month in 2027 and 40,000 units per month in 2028.

Server CPU Demand Outlook

Mizuho analyst Kevin Wang stated that server CPU demand for AI applications is expected to grow above 50 % year‑on‑year in 2027, with ARM‑based CPUs projected to more than double versus 2026. Unit‑level forecasts include:

  • Nvidia Vera CPUs: >7 million units in 2027.
  • AMD Venice CPUs: 5 million units in 2027.
  • Google CPUs: >4 million units in 2027.
  • AWS CPUs: >3 million units in 2027.
  • Microsoft CPUs: roughly 1 million units in 2027.
  • Meta CPUs: 100,000‑200,000 units in 2027.

Packaging Ecosystem Capacity

  • ASE’s monthly CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 20,000 units in 2026 and 40,000‑45,000 units in 2027, primarily for AMD Venice and Nvidia Vera programs.
  • Amkor Technology’s capacity is forecast to expand to 20,000‑25,000 units by the end of 2027, covering Nvidia Vera, GB10, LPU, Broadcom switch, and GUC Microsoft CPUs.
  • Mizuho assigns BUY ratings with price objectives of TWD 570 for ASE and HKD 280 for ASMPT, citing the packaging tailwinds.

Equipment Procurement

Mizuho observed orders for Shibaura’s CoW thermal compression bonding (TCB) from ASE/SPIL in March and from TSMC in April, and expects combined TSMC and ASE/SPIL purchases of more than 130 TCB units in 2026. Additionally, TSMC plans to place 50‑80 flux‑less TCB orders with either K&S or ASMPT in H2 2026 and H1 2027.

Intel Interconnect Yield

The EMIB‑T interconnect yield rate has surpassed 95 %, and Intel is engaging customers such as MediaTek, Ampere Computing, AWS, and Tesla for technology adoption.

Ratings and Price Targets

Mizuho maintains a BUY rating on TSMC with a price objective of TWD 3,000 and a BUY rating on ASML Holding NV with a price objective of EUR 2,000. The firm highlights the need for Nvidia’s Vera CPU ramp and Rubin production to stay on schedule, continued acceleration of CSP silicon programs at Google and AWS, and sustained N2 yield improvements as key forward catalysts.