Moody's Rating Upgrade for Uzbekistan
Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Uzbekistan’s long‑term issuer and senior unsecured sovereign rating to Ba2 from Ba3 on 26 June 2026, and shifted the outlook from positive to stable. The agency also raised the ratings on the country’s senior unsecured medium‑term note (MTN) programmes to (P)Ba2 from (P)Ba3.
The upgrade reflects sustained improvements in the nation’s institutional and policy framework together with a strengthening economic and fiscal outlook. Real GDP growth averaged roughly 6.9 % over the past three years, accelerated to 7.7 % in 2025 and further to 8.7 % in the first quarter of 2026. The fiscal deficit narrowed to about 2 % of GDP in 2025, down from above 4 % in 2023, driven by energy‑subsidy reforms that cut gas‑sector subsidies to 0.3 % of GDP from 1.4 %.
In May 2026, the Uzbekistan National Investment Fund completed a dual listing that raised approximately US$691 million, demonstrating the authorities’ commitment to reduce the state’s economic footprint and improve corporate governance. Moody’s projects fiscal deficits to stay below 3 % of GDP through 2026‑28, with debt‑to‑GDP stabilising around 35 %.
Growth is expected to moderate to 6.1‑6.3 % in 2026‑27, supported by structural reforms, favourable demographics and continued diversification. However, contingent liabilities from state‑owned enterprises and public‑private partnerships remain elevated at roughly 25 % of GDP.
State‑owned banks continue to dominate the banking sector, but preferential lending fell to 19.2 % of total loans by the end of 2025, down from 39 % in 2020. Moody’s also raised Uzbekistan’s local‑currency and foreign‑currency sovereign ceilings to Baa3 from Ba1 and Ba2 from Ba3, respectively. External debt stood at 56.6 % of GDP in 2025, with import cover of about 17 months.