Morgan Stanley AI Labor Disruption Tracker

Morgan Stanley's AI disruption tracker estimates AI's aggregate impact on U.S. unemployment at no more than 10 basis points.
High‑exposure workers see unemployment about 0.3 percentage points above normal, implying a maximum 10‑bp effect on overall rate.
Young workers exhibit early disruption signs, with modestly rising layoff flows and longer unemployment durations.
Morgan Stanley notes AI impact is clearer in micro‑level data than macro aggregates, with earnings calls mentioning displacement faster than job creation.