Morgan Stanley Assessment of China’s Emerging Space Competition
Morgan Stanley analysts state that China’s rapidly advancing reusable‑rocket programme now represents the most significant long‑term competitive threat to SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX). The assessment follows China’s successful recovery of the Long March 10B orbital‑class booster, marking the nation’s first such achievement and positioning the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. (CASC) as only the third entity globally—after SpaceX and Blue Origin—to retrieve an orbital‑class booster.
The brokerage highlights that China’s deep‑space ecosystem combines state‑backed launch programmes with private firms such as LandSpace, Galactic Energy and Space Pioneer, collectively strengthening its competitive posture against SpaceX’s launch business over the long run.
In 2025, China conducted 90 orbital launches, compared with SpaceX’s 165 Falcon 9 launches, making China the world’s second‑largest launch market by activity. U.S. Space Force officials had previously estimated that China was three to five years away from mastering reusable launch capability; however, the Long March 10B demonstration could compress that timeline, according to Morgan Stanley.
Beyond launch frequency, China is pursuing expansive satellite constellations. The planned Guowang and Qianfan low‑Earth‑orbit constellations together target roughly 28,000 satellites, and a separate filing seeks approval for more than 190,000 non‑geostationary satellites. Additionally, China is investing heavily in space‑based computing, exemplified by the launch of the first satellites for a proposed 2,800‑satellite “Star Compute” orbital super‑computer network.
Despite these developments, Morgan Stanley maintains an “overweight” rating on SpaceX with a $300 price target, emphasizing that SpaceX remains the global leader in launch cadence, reusable rocket technology, and satellite connectivity, while cautioning investors not to underestimate China’s progress in narrowing the competitive gap.