Rating Change

Morgan Stanley downgraded Daimler Truck Holding AG to equal‑weight from overweight on 4 September 2026, citing a tactical decision after the stock rallied roughly 50 % from its 2025 lows. The downgrade reflects the broker’s view that the truck cycle is approaching its peak.

Valuation and Earnings Estimates

The firm raised its price target to €50, up from €47, implying about a 9 % upside. It also increased its 2027 earnings‑per‑share estimate by 9 % to €5.54, applying a 9‑times multiple to the revised EPS.

Truck Cycle Outlook

Analysts note that historically truck stocks peak nine to eleven months after the initial North American Class 8 order inflection; the current cycle is at month nine. The second derivative of order growth has already rolled over, making fresh order highs unlikely even if monthly volumes reach roughly 50,000 units through year‑end.

Margin Forecasts

Morgan Stanley projects North American EBIT margins for Daimler Truck at approximately 10 % in 2026, rising to 12.5 % in 2027. The 2027 and 2028 EPS upgrades of 9 % and 16 % respectively are attributed to stronger North American volumes and improved margins following U.S. Department of Commerce approval of an additional U.S. content application effective November 2025.

Mercedes‑Benz Trucks Performance

Mercedes‑Benz Trucks reported a second‑quarter adjusted return on sales of 6.0 %, below the consensus estimate of 6.4 %, primarily due to disrupted spare‑parts logistics from the Halberstadt plant ramp‑up. Analysts expect its adjusted EBIT margin to be about 7 % in 2026 and 7.7 % in 2027.

Other OEM Ratings

Morgan Stanley left its other truck OEM ratings unchanged: PACCAR Inc remains equal‑weight with a target raised to $125 from $119 (≈2 % upside); Volvo stays equal‑weight with a target of SEK 355 versus SEK 342 (≈2 % upside); Traton SE stays underweight with a target of €36, up from €34 (≈3 % downside).

North American Market Forecast

The broker forecasts the North American Class 8 market to reach roughly 325,000 units in 2027, representing a 20 % year‑over‑year increase and exceeding the consensus expectation of about 15 % growth.