Overview
Morgan Stanley examined production data from roughly 4,000 oil and gas fields to evaluate the forward production outlook for European major oil companies through 2030.
Sector Production Forecast
The aggregate annual production growth for the European oil sector was revised upward to 2.9% for the 2025‑2030 period, compared with the previous forecast of 1.2%. The rolling four‑year forward production increase was estimated at 8.3%.
Company‑Specific Outlook
Eni displayed the strongest production runway, with Morgan Stanley projecting a 4.5% annual growth rate through 2030 and indicating that growth could continue beyond 2030, extending to 2034. Equinor was identified as facing the greatest challenges to production growth among the peers studied. Shell was upgraded to an Overweight rating and designated a Top Pick, with the bank forecasting a total shareholder return of 15% and expecting a notable acceleration in dividend per share following recent operational improvements. BP retained an Overweight rating, with Morgan Stanley citing expectations of net‑debt reduction faster than the company’s own targets, an attractive valuation and several potential catalysts.
Methodology
The research employed bottom‑up data supplied by multiple data‑consulting firms to map the production growth outlook across the European major oil companies.