The United States must decide by 30 June or 1 July 2026 whether to impose a 15 % tariff on refined copper imports starting 1 January 2027, with a possible increase to 30 % in 2028.
COMEX (US‑delivered) copper is already trading about 6 % above the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark; if the tariff is announced, COMEX could trade roughly 15 % higher than LME.
Morgan Stanley estimates the US has over‑imported 260,000 metric tonnes of refined copper year‑to‑date, equal to 2.6 % of global demand on an annualised basis, and now holds more than one year of normal refined copper imports in inventory.
A 50 % import tariff already applies to aluminium, steel and most semi‑finished copper products; the June 1 White House fact sheet highlighted recent output developments in steel, aluminium and copper.
Morgan Stanley outlines three scenarios: (i) tariffs announced with advance notice – accelerated US copper inflows, tighter ex‑US markets and higher COMEX/LME prices; (ii) tariffs ruled out – cessation of excess US imports, downward pressure on both benchmarks; (iii) decision delayed – status‑quo persists with modestly negative price impact.
Market participants are pricing roughly a 43 % probability that a 15 % tariff will be in force by January 2027.
COMEX net long positions are at an all‑time high, reflecting heightened market positioning ahead of the decision.
