Morgan Stanley has reduced its price target for Italian luxury group Moncler to €57 per share, down from the previous €59, while maintaining an equal‑weight rating. The new target is derived from a blended valuation approach: a discounted cash flow (DCF) model that implies a share price of €55, based on a weighted average cost of capital of 8.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, and a multiples‑based method that yields €60 using Moncler’s historical average next‑12‑month price‑to‑earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.7× and a peer‑group average of 24.2× (including LVMH, Kering, Richemont, Prada and Burberry).
The brokerage now forecasts Moncler’s retail sales growth for the second quarter of 2026 at 5% on a constant‑exchange‑rate basis, comprising 3% from new store openings and 2% from like‑for‑like performance, which falls short of the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 8.4%. Correspondingly, Morgan Stanley projects earnings per share of €2.34 for 2026, below the consensus forecast of €2.40.
Moncler’s U.S. market, representing only 13% of total sales, is highlighted as the primary medium‑term growth opportunity. The firm plans to open a flagship store in New York City in September 2026; the 2,000‑square‑metre outlet will be roughly ten times larger than an average Moncler store. However, the analysts note that any material upside from U.S. consumer traction is unlikely to affect earnings before the 2027‑28 period.
European tourism risk is also emphasized. More than 60% of Moncler’s European sales in the second quarter are attributed to tourists, predominantly from China, Japan and South Korea. A slowdown in Asian tourist arrivals to Europe this summer could indirectly weigh on results.
For the Stone Island brand, Morgan Stanley forecasts second‑quarter retail sales growth of 15% at constant exchange rates, following 17% growth in the first quarter.
Group‑level revenue is projected to rise from €3.25 billion in 2026 to €3.46 billion in 2027 and €3.66 billion in 2028. Corresponding earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) are expected to increase from €951 million in 2026 to €1.02 billion in 2027 and €1.09 billion in 2028. Moncler is scheduled to report its second‑quarter and first‑half 2026 results on 22 July.