Morgan Stanley projects aluminum prices to rise, setting a FY2026 bull case target of $3,700 per tonne.
Middle East smelter shutdowns of 564,000 tpa (0.8% global capacity) and Mozambique’s 500,000 tpa closure tighten global supply.
Raw material stocks are low, with Bahrain’s Alba reporting very low inventories and Emirates Global Aluminium holding only a 2‑3 week buffer.
Aluminum forward curve has steepened into backwardation and LME on‑warrant inventories are at their lowest since May 2025, pushing regional premiums higher.