NVIDIA Up 1.7% on 20% Revenue Upside

Market Reaction

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares were trading up 1.7% at $198.37 in midday New York time on June 30, 2026, following a note from independent semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis.

SemiAnalysis Forecast

SemiAnalysis projected that NVIDIA’s data‑center computing revenue for the second half of fiscal year 2027 will be 20% higher than Wall Street consensus estimates. The firm attributes the upside to the clearance of a previously identified HBM4 memory supply bottleneck and an accelerating ramp of the Vera Rubin platform.

Supply‑Chain Context

The HBM4 constraint, which had delayed mass shipments of the Rubin platform, is now resolved, and front‑end wafer inventory has been pre‑built. Digitimes reported on June 25 that vendors expect the Blackwell‑to‑Rubin product transition to complete in Q2 2026, setting the stage for demand acceleration from Q3 onward.

Vera Rubin Production Details

Vera Rubin entered full production on June 1, 2026. Production shipments are slated for the upcoming fall to eight cloud partners: AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud, CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, and Nscale. Each GPU’s HBM4 memory delivers roughly 22 TB/s bandwidth, about three times the HBM3e bandwidth of the Blackwell generation, offering hyperscalers a notable performance‑per‑token improvement.

Rubin Ultra Design Change

SemiAnalysis noted that NVIDIA’s original four‑chip Rubin Ultra configuration, announced at GTC 2026, was cancelled about three months later and replaced with a version half the physical size, with performance scaled down proportionally. NVIDIA has not publicly commented on this redesign, and the long‑term revenue impact remains unclear.

Earnings Outlook Implications

If SemiAnalysis’s projection holds, it would represent a material upward revision to the guidance heading into Q2 FY2027 earnings, tentatively scheduled for August 26, 2026. Current consensus models EPS at $2.07 and revenue at approximately $91.7 billion for that quarter; SemiAnalysis’s supply‑chain‑based view suggests those figures may be too conservative.