On Semiconductor Earnings Options Outlook
Bloomberg‑compiled options data indicates that On Semiconductor Corp. (ON) shares could move roughly 10% when the company reports its earnings on August 3, after the market close. The options market has correctly anticipated the magnitude of price movement in four of the last eight earnings releases, with implied moves ranging from 7.0% to 9.7% and actual price changes varying between a 15.7% decline and a 12.5% rise.
Historical implied versus actual moves are as follows: on May 4 the market implied a 9.4% swing while the stock changed 4.3%; on February 9 the implied move was 8.6% and the stock rose 12.5%; in November 2025 the implied move was 8.9% but the share price fell 0.5%; on August 4 2025 the implied move was 9.7% and the stock dropped 15.7%; on May 5 2025 the implied move was 8.8% versus a 3.1% decline; on February 10 2025 the implied move was 8.5% versus a 10.1% decline; in October 2024 the implied move was 8.1% and the stock rose 5.5%; and on July 29 2024 the implied move was 7.0% with the stock gaining 7.9%.
The article notes that the options market’s track record of correctly predicting the magnitude of price moves stands at 50% for the eight most recent earnings announcements. This piece was generated with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor, as indicated in the footer.