Philip Morris Expected 4.9% Move on July 22 Earnings
Bloomberg‑compiled options data indicates that Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) shares may experience a 4.9% price movement when the company releases its earnings on July 22, prior to the market opening. The implied move is derived from the pricing of near‑term options and reflects market expectations of volatility surrounding the earnings announcement.
Historical comparison shows that in five of the last eight earnings releases, the actual stock price change exceeded the magnitude suggested by the options market. Specific past earnings outcomes are as follows:
- April 22: Options implied a 4.7% move; the stock actually changed 2.8%.
- February 6: Options implied a 4.6% move; the stock actually changed 2.8%.
- October 21, 2025: Options suggested a 5.0% move; the stock fell 4.7%.
- July 22, 2025: Options implied a 4.8% move; the stock dropped 8.6%.
- April 23, 2025: Options indicated a 4.6% implied move; the stock rose 5.0%.
- February 6, 2025: Options implied a 3.7% move; the stock jumped 12.1%.
- October 22, 2024: Options indicated a 3.6% move; the stock climbed 9.4%.
- July 23, 2024: Options implied a 2.8% move; the stock increased 4.3%.
These historical instances illustrate that while the implied move provides a useful benchmark, actual price reactions can be substantially larger in either direction. The upcoming July 22 earnings release will be the next data point to assess the accuracy of the 4.9% implied move.