Raymond James: Banks Upside, Fed Cuts Stall

Raymond James identifies ten asset-sensitive U.S. banks that could see earnings upside if the Federal Reserve delivers near-zero rate cuts in 2026.
Market expectations shifted from 50-75 bps cuts to near-zero cuts by year-end, with possible hike if inflation spikes.
The Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections now forecasts only one 25‑bp cut for 2026, down from the earlier two-to-three cuts outlook.
Raymond James calculates upside by multiplying embedded rate‑cut assumptions with net‑interest‑income impact of a –100‑bp scenario for the listed banks.