Raymond James Initiates Coverage of Birkenstock Holding
Raymond James has initiated coverage of Birkenstock Holding, assigning an Outperform rating and setting a price target of $52 per share. Analyst Rick Patel highlighted that despite the company's founding in 1774, it should be viewed as a growth story, noting a historical revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22 % from fiscal 2021 through fiscal 2025, which exceeds the 14 % CAGR of its soft‑lines peers. The firm forecasts revenue to grow 11.0 % in fiscal 2026 and 12.8 % in fiscal 2027, delivering an estimated revenue CAGR of 12 % through fiscal 2027 compared with a peer average of 8 %.
Patel identified several growth levers: expansion of production capacity, diversification of the assortment into closed‑toe footwear, deeper penetration with existing wholesale partners, opening of new stores, and international expansion. He indicated that the Asia‑Pacific region has the potential to double its contribution, while the EMEA region is returning to growth after a marketplace cleanup.
The analyst stated that Birkenstock is more supply‑constrained than demand‑constrained, and that new distribution‑center capacity will be a key catalyst for incremental revenue. Unit growth is projected at approximately a 10 % CAGR, and average selling prices are expected to rise by more than 3‑5 % annually.
On valuation, Patel noted that the fiscal 2027 price‑to‑earnings (P/E) multiple is expected to be around 15.5 times, which appears attractive relative to an estimated earnings‑per‑share (EPS) growth of 29 % in fiscal 2027 and 20 % in fiscal 2028.