Overview
RBC Capital Markets has identified a set of global energy equities as its highest‑conviction ideas for the back half of 2026. The curated list has generated a cumulative 314.5% return since its inception, markedly outperforming the hybrid benchmark’s 100.4% gain.
BP Plc
BP Plc is the sole new addition this month and is presented as the clearest turnaround story. At year‑end 2025 the company’s net‑debt‑to‑CFFO ratio stood at 2.2 ×, but it is now projected to achieve a net‑debt range of $14‑18 bn by the end of Q3 2026— a full year ahead of the original end‑2027 target. Gearing is expected to decline from 23% to roughly 10% by year‑end. BP’s 1.3 million bbl/d global refining capacity places it at the centre of the tightest segment of the energy complex, with refining margins anticipated to rise to $27 per barrel in 2026 from $13 per barrel in 2025. The stock trades at an implied 3.5× 2026E EV/DACF, compared with 4.4× for its European peers.
Suncor Energy
Suncor Energy, added in March 2023 at C$45.86, now trades at C$90.79 and carries a C$100 price target. Its 2026 Investor Day outlined a plan to add 100,000 bbl/d of upstream production, increase refinery capacity by 10% to 511,000 bbl/d, and lower its corporate WTI break‑even to US$38 per barrel. The company has also raised its monthly buyback programme by 43% to $500 million, a level RBC deems sustainable into 2027.
Canadian Natural Resources
Since its April 2022 inclusion, Canadian Natural Resources has appreciated roughly 68% and is assigned a C$79 price target. Net debt has already slipped below the $16 bn threshold, automatically triggering a step‑up in shareholder returns to 75% of free cash flow. The firm operates under a management‑committee structure with no single CEO and possesses a long‑life, low‑decline asset base, attributes RBC describes as globally distinctive.
Ovintiv
Ovintiv entered the list in May 2026 at $38.79, currently trades at $60.75 and has an $85 price target. Following the $2.7 bn NuVista acquisition and a $3 bn sale of its Anadarko Basin assets, the company has consolidated operations into two high‑quality basins—the Permian and Montney. Ovintiv now targets the return of more than 60% of free cash flow to shareholders on an annual basis.
Permian Resources
Added in December 2025, Permian Resources has risen about 39% and carries a $27 price target. Its dividend coverage is secured down to a WTI price of $40 per barrel, leverage stands at 0.7×, and its Delaware Basin position holds 12–15 years of drilling inventory.
AltaGas
AltaGas, on the list since August 2023, has more than doubled from C$26.03 to C$55.58, with a C$59 price target. The company is advancing a de‑leveraging plan aimed at a 4.5–5.0× debt/EBITDA ratio while progressing growth projects such as the REEF joint venture and the Pipestone plant expansion.
Cheniere Energy
Cheniere Energy offers a rare blend of visibility and growth: 95% of its liquefaction capacity is contracted through 2035 under take‑or‑pay agreements with high‑quality counterparties. Current liquefaction capacity is approximately 52 MTPA, with a pipeline to 75 MTPA through expansions at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi.
Williams Companies
Williams Companies is positioned as a primary beneficiary of rising power and natural‑gas demand, anchored by Transco pipeline expansions. RBC notes its estimates may be conservative because they exclude a sizable backlog of potential transmission projects identified for the 2027–2033 window.
Enerflex
Enerflex has delivered the most dramatic performance on the list, climbing from $5.16 in February 2024 to $22.25—a gain of more than 330%—with a $33 price target that still suggests upside. It is the only stock in RBC’s energy‑services coverage with positive Street earnings revisions for 2026 and has secured early orders to supply power‑generation units for U.S. data‑center projects with deliveries extending into 2027.
EDP Renováveis
EDP Renováveis rounds out the top picks, trading at a discount to invested capital despite a structurally improving business. Recurring earnings grew four‑fold year‑over‑year in 2025. The company controls over 5 GW of U.S. safe‑harboured capacity with commercial operation dates extending to 2030, and RBC estimates that recontracting alone could add $40 million in annual EBITDA by 2030 and $180 million by 2035.
---