Scotiabank Initiates Coverage of Ride‑hailing and On‑demand Delivery Sector
Scotiabank analyst Nat Schindler launched coverage of the ride‑hailing and on‑demand delivery industry, assigning Uber Technologies Inc and DoorDash Inc a Sector Outperform rating and Lyft Inc a Sector Perform rating. The analyst set price targets of $100 for Uber, $275 for DoorDash, and $17 for Lyft, indicating the firm’s expectations for future earnings growth.
Schindler highlighted that the sector’s expansion is driven by a long‑term shift toward convenience and away from private car ownership, and that the market has matured into a rational, consolidated structure that supports pricing discipline and capital efficiency. He emphasized that subscription programs—specifically Uber One and DoorDash’s DashPass—are the primary levers separating the leaders, converting occasional users into habitual customers, reducing churn, and enhancing margins alongside high‑margin advertising revenue.
Regarding autonomous vehicles (AV), Schindler framed the issue as a capital‑allocation problem rather than a technology hurdle, noting that an owned fleet cannot flex with variable demand as a marketplace can. Uber, he said, captures AV supply through partnerships without funding its own fleet, thereby preserving flexibility.
Lyft is described as a genuine turnaround story but remains structurally sub‑scale. Schindler stated that the debate has shifted from Lyft’s survivability to its ability to achieve scale.
A shared risk identified across all three firms is heavy exposure to affluent consumers; a downturn affecting higher‑income professional roles—potentially accelerated by AI‑driven disruption—could adversely impact the companies.
Scotiabank also named Amazon.com Inc, citing its Zoox robotaxi unit and extensive retail base, as the most credible long‑term challenger to the current leaders.