Announcement
Shell, in its annual LNG report released on 30 June 2026, warned that global physical LNG cargo sales for 2026 could remain flat at 422 million metric tonnes, matching the volume recorded in 2025. The company indicated that a return to growth is only expected in 2027, contingent on the restoration of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz this summer.
Supply Outlook
Shell highlighted that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already prevented roughly one‑fifth of global LNG supply from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. While cargo‑laden vessels are currently exiting the waterway, the peace agreement remains fragile, with the United States and Iran exchanging fire over the weekend and peace talks slated to resume on Tuesday. Shell cautioned that if the disruption persists for the remainder of the year, the market could experience a rare annual supply contraction, reversing the growth trajectory anticipated before the conflict.
Demand and New Supply Forecast
The company projected that global LNG demand will rise to nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050, representing an increase of about 65 % compared with 2025 levels. Additionally, Shell expects approximately 180 million tonnes of new LNG supply to come online by 2030.
Market Reaction
During the peak of the Middle East crisis, Asian spot LNG prices climbed to above $20 per million British thermal units.
Sources
Reuters article dated 30‑06‑2026, authored by Luke Juricic.