Siemens AG Rating Upgrade and Forecast Revision
Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded Siemens AG to a Hold rating from Reduce on 3 July 2026, simultaneously raising its price target to €280 per share from the prior €255, a change that translates to a 9.8% increase over consensus. The broker highlighted a "pivotal point" for the German capital‑goods group ahead of its third‑quarter earnings scheduled for 6 August 2026.
Siemens shares closed at €276.90 on 2 July, giving the new target an upside of roughly 1.1%. At that price the company’s market capitalization was reported at €212.2 billion.
Kepler Cheuvreux lifted its 2026‑2028 forecasts above consensus across the board. Sales are projected to rise from €83.19 billion in FY‑2026 to €90.90 billion in FY‑2027 and €96.09 billion in FY‑2028. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase from €15.24 billion (2026) to €17.08 billion (2027) and €19.08 billion (2028). Adjusted EBIT forecasts stand at €11.82 billion, €13.44 billion, and €15.23 billion for the same years. Adjusted net profit is forecast at €9.36 billion (2026), €10.74 billion (2027) and €12.20 billion (2028).
The broker expects net financial debt to decline from €39.95 billion in 2026 to €35.88 billion in 2027 and further to €30.34 billion by 2028. Fully‑diluted earnings per share are projected at €12.21, €14.21, and €16.15 for 2026‑2028, respectively, comfortably above consensus estimates of €10.9, €12.7, and €14.2. The dividend outlook is for €5.75, €6.30, and €6.75 per share over the three‑year horizon.
Kepler noted that downside risk to industrial automation forecasts appears "de minimis," the de‑rating of industrial software assets is "played out," and the de‑consolidation of Siemens Healthineers is "fast approaching." From early 2027, Siemens is expected to enter a "new era" focused on leadership in critical industrial software and hardware markets, targeting high single‑digit growth. The brokerage observed that much of the potential valuation re‑rating has already occurred in the past twelve months, though uncertainty around the pace of the cyclical recovery remains.
Ahead of the August 6 results, the broker anticipates "positive operational gearing" at Digital Industries and "rising volumes" at Smart Infrastructure, which should help deliver an earnings beat versus current expectations and may allow Siemens to raise its margin guidance. For the 2027‑2030 period, Kepler projects a substantial increase in operating profitability for the industrial software business, citing the payoff from more than three years of investment in a full SaaS model. Rapid order growth at Smart Infrastructure is expected to expand the order backlog, setting the stage for higher‑than‑expected revenue growth in the Electrification unit.