Overview
Wolfe Research has initiated coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) following the company’s historic initial public offering, noting that the stock closed approximately 19% higher at around $161 and the firm has set a price target of $175.
Cost‑Curve Breakthrough
The analysts attribute SpaceX’s competitive advantage to a near‑zero internal launch cost achieved through reusability. The Falcon 9 provides first‑stage reusability, while the upper stage is expended at a cost of $8‑10 million per flight. Wolfe estimates the incremental launch cost for Falcon 9, which carries roughly 20 tonnes of payload, at $14 million. In contrast, full‑stage reusability with Starship—designed for both stages to be reusable and for rapid turnaround—could reduce the incremental cost to between $3 million and $5 million for launches carrying 100 tonnes or more, with a theoretical floor of $1 million per flight for fuel alone.
Growth Projections and Financial Outlook
Wolfe projects SpaceX to deliver 70% top‑line growth and to nearly double its EBITDA margins by 2030. The firm forecasts the company generating more than $90 billion in EBITDA and over $70 billion in EBITDA less capital expenditures by that horizon.
Starlink Contribution
The connectivity arm, Starlink, reached a pivotal inflection point in 2024 when EBITDA less capital expenditures turned positive. Wolfe expects Starlink’s capacity to expand twelve‑fold by 2030, reinforcing the broader financial outlook for SpaceX.
Valuation Rationale
According to Wolfe Research, the combination of a near‑zero launch cost moat and the scalability of Starlink creates an “out‑of‑this‑world” near‑term valuation, justifying the $175 price target.