SpaceX Shares Decline Despite Analyst Upgrades
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) slipped nearly 10% on Thursday, closing at $172.95, marking a second consecutive down session after an extraordinary post‑IPO rally. The stock remains above its $135 IPO price. SpaceX disclosed that underwriters fully exercised the greenshoe option, bringing total IPO proceeds to $85.7 billion.
Valuation concerns intensified after SpaceX announced a $60 billion all‑stock acquisition of Anysphere, the maker of the AI coding tool Cursor, just days after the IPO. The deal split institutional opinion on capital allocation, and an upcoming lock‑up expiration in August raised worries about a potential increase in share supply.
Oppenheimer, in a research note, raised its price target for SpaceX to $250 from $190, arguing that the Cursor transaction is likely to be highly accretive. The brokerage lifted near‑term revenue forecasts, extended its valuation model through 2040, and estimated that Cursor is already operating at an annualized revenue run‑rate of roughly $4 billion—up sharply from about $1 billion at the end of 2025—and could reach $6 billion by the end of 2026. Oppenheimer highlighted SpaceX’s ownership of multiple layers of the AI ecosystem—from launch services and satellite connectivity to data centres, models and applications—as providing significant cost and quality advantages, and it expects further acquisitions as the company expands its AI capabilities and infrastructure.
SpaceX’s IPO filing revealed a net loss of $4.9 billion for 2025 and an additional $4.28 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026, with Starlink remaining its only profitable segment. Within 48 hours of trading, the stock had already surpassed the highest price target published, while Morningstar’s fair‑value estimate stayed well below the current price.
Broader market gains offered no relief: the S&P 500 was up 0.9%, the Dow Jones 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 1.2% on the day, underscoring SPCX’s underperformance relative to its peers. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.50%‑3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting on June 17, with new Chair Kevin Walsh introducing a reform agenda that has generally benefited growth stocks but not halted the sell‑off in SpaceX shares.
Separately, Arete analyst Andrew Beale initiated coverage of SpaceX with a buy rating and a street‑high price target of $401, implying a 109% premium over Wednesday’s closing price of $191.82. Beale highlighted the substantial broadband opportunity presented by Starlink’s V3 satellites in suburban markets and noted that SpaceX is tackling complex engineering challenges in stages as it develops hardware and software for space, connectivity, and AI.
Other space‑sector companies also declined on Thursday: Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR), Planet Labs (NYSE:PL), Satellogic (NASDAQ:SATL) and Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) fell between 3% and 5%. AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) dropped more than 8% after a near‑4% rise the previous day following successful satellite launches, while satellite communications firm EchoStar (NASDAQ:SATS), a pre‑IPO shareholder of SpaceX, fell more than 6%.