SpaceX Stock Decline and Market Impact

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) closed 16.4% lower on Monday, trading at $154.59, just a few dollars above the $150 IPO opening price on June 12, after having peaked at $225.64 since its trading debut. The 16.4% pullback erased roughly $400 billion of market capitalization, prompting investors to reassess whether the company’s long‑term growth prospects justify its elevated valuation.

The stock continued to slide in Tuesday’s pre‑market session, falling an additional 3.1% by 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT).

Financial Position and Funding

SpaceX disclosed that it held approximately $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 19. On the same day, the company launched a senior unsecured notes offering, stating that the proceeds would be used to repay bridge financing and for general corporate purposes.

Analyst Coverage and Valuation Multiples

KeyBanc initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Sector Weight rating, arguing that the company’s significant long‑term growth opportunities are already reflected in its share price. The brokerage noted that SpaceX trades at roughly 29× price‑to‑sales and 71× EV/EBITDA based on its 2027 estimates, representing a substantial premium to peers across the space, AI, and communications services sectors. Six analysts assigned Buy ratings, while CFRA was the sole firm with a Sell rating.

Business Segments and Revenue Breakdown

SpaceX operates three primary segments:

  • Connectivity (Starlink satellite internet) contributed 61% of 2025 revenue, generating about $11.4 billion and delivering a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin.
  • Space encompasses launch vehicles such as Falcon 9 and the next‑generation Starship.
  • AI includes the Grok chatbot and xAI computing infrastructure, which was formed after the February 2026 merger with Elon Musk’s AI startup.

AI Segment Contracts and Outlook

Although the AI segment remains loss‑making, it has secured major long‑term compute contracts: a deal with Anthropic valued at roughly $1.25 billion per month and a separate agreement with Google worth about $920 million per month. KeyBanc projects AI segment revenue to reach approximately $50.6 billion by 2027, positioning it as the primary medium‑term growth driver. The firm cautioned that the Grok model has yet to achieve meaningful market traction, holding only 3.1% U.S. business adoption compared with 41% for Anthropic and 39.5% for OpenAI, and described the next 12‑24 months as a “prove it phase.”

Starship Development Timeline

Analysts identified the Starship development schedule as the pivotal variable for the investment case. Starship is essential for deploying next‑generation Starlink V3 satellites, reducing launch costs through full reusability, and eventually enabling orbital data centers. Flight 13 of Starship is slated for June 29, and while analysts remain optimistic about eventual success, they adopt a conservative stance on the timeline.

Share Structure and Ownership

SpaceX has roughly 13 billion shares outstanding, with only about 5% in the initial public float. Elon Musk holds a 42% stake, which is locked up until June 2027.

Analyst Ratings Summary

Six analysts issued Buy recommendations, KeyBanc provided a Sector Weight rating, and CFRA maintained a Sell rating.