Overview

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies) shares fell 4.6% in pre‑market trading on 22 June 2026 after KeyBanc shifted its coverage stance to a “Sector Weight” rating, indicating that the stock’s valuation has become increasingly stretched following a sharp post‑IPO rally.

Analyst Ratings

KeyBanc initiated coverage with a Sector Weight rating; six analysts maintain Buy ratings, while CFRA is the sole broker with a Sell rating. The broker described SpaceX as the dominant leader in space launch and space‑adjacent verticals but said the risk/reward balance remains until greater visibility on the next‑generation Starship rocket.

Valuation Multiples

KeyBanc’s 2027 estimates imply SpaceX trades at roughly 29 times price‑to‑sales and 71 times EV/EBITDA, representing a significant premium to peers in the space, AI, and communications services sectors.

Business Segments

SpaceX operates three segments:

  • Connectivity – Starlink satellite internet, accounting for 61% of 2025 revenue, generating approximately $11.4 billion in revenue with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin.
  • Space – Launch vehicles including Falcon 9 and the upcoming Starship.
  • AI – Grok chatbot and xAI computing infrastructure, incorporated after the February 2026 merger with Elon Musk’s AI startup.

AI Segment Outlook

The AI segment remains loss‑making but has secured major long‑term compute contracts: a deal with Anthropic valued at roughly $1.25 billion per month and a separate agreement with Google valued at $920 million per month. KeyBanc projects AI segment revenue to reach about $50.6 billion by 2027, making it the primary medium‑term growth driver. However, the Grok model holds only 3.1% U.S. business adoption versus 41% for Anthropic and 39.5% for OpenAI, and the next 12‑24 months are described as a “prove it phase”.

Starship Development

Starship’s development timeline is identified as the key variable for the investment case. The rocket is essential for deploying next‑generation Starlink V3 satellites, reducing launch costs through full reusability, and eventually enabling orbital data centers. Flight 13 of Starship is scheduled for 29 June 2026, and analysts adopt a conservative view on its development timeline.

Share Structure

SpaceX has approximately 13 billion shares outstanding, with only about 5% in the initial float. Elon Musk holds a 42% stake, which is locked up until June 2027.

Conclusion

The combination of a stretched valuation, premium multiples, and uncertainties around Starship and AI adoption prompted analysts to adopt a more cautious stance, resulting in a pre‑market price decline.