Announcement

SpaceX shares were down more than 6% by 10:49 ET (14:49 GMT) as the company prepared for its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index on Tuesday. The index addition is expected to trigger a wave of passive buying, with JPMorgan estimating that roughly $4.3 billion could flow into SpaceX from passive funds.

Analyst Coverage Initiated

Four Wall Street banks initiated coverage of Space Exploration Technologies Ltd (SpaceX) ahead of the Nasdaq 100 inclusion.

  • Morgan Stanley started the stock at Overweight with a $300 price target, framing a $75 bear case and a $600 bull case.
  • RBC Capital Markets rated the stock Outperform with a $225 target, valuing the company at about 15 times its projected 2029 EBITDA and emphasizing the durability of its compute assets.
  • Stifel issued a Buy rating with a $190 target, the lowest among the initiators, focusing on launch economics and citing Falcon 9 reusability that drives launch costs to roughly $3,000 per kilogram.
  • UBS Group AG gave a Buy rating and a $210 target, sizing the combined launch, connectivity and AI opportunity at nearly $30 trillion if Starship meets expectations, and forecasting revenue and EBITDA to grow at approximately 70% and 90% annually through 2031, with launch costs falling to about $200 per kilogram from the current $1,000.

Key Analyst Insights

  • Adam Jonas (lead analyst) described SpaceX as holding an “X of 1” position in space infrastructure and argued that the market undervalues the company’s terrestrial data‑center economics, estimating costs at half the industry average. He highlighted a projected funding gap of roughly $84 billion per year in external capital from 2027 through 2034 before the business turns free‑cash‑flow positive.
  • RBC identified the cadence of Starship flight‑tests, the pending acquisition of the Cursor company, and the rollout of next‑generation Starlink V3 satellites as the top near‑term catalysts.
  • Stifel noted execution risk in scaling orbital data‑center services, applying a lighter valuation multiple to the AI segment.
  • UBS portrayed the stock as a “call option” on Elon Musk’s multiplanetary ambitions, while keeping that scenario outside its base case.

IPO and Market Performance

SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 per share on June 12, raising about $86 billion—the largest offering on record. Since the debut, the shares have traded above the IPO price, closing on Monday at $160.42, though still below the roughly $225 high reached in the first weeks of trading.

Index Inclusion Context

The Nasdaq 100 inclusion follows SpaceX’s June 12 market debut and represents one of the fastest index inclusions on record, enabled by Nasdaq’s updated rules for newly listed firms seeking entry into widely tracked benchmarks.

Market Reaction

The Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) fell 2.09% and the S&P 500 Communication Services index (SPCX) dropped 5.52% as the news unfolded.