Background
Elon Musk, the chief executive of SpaceX, posted on X a stark warning to short sellers, stating, "I try to warn them, but they just double down …" This comment follows reports of a sharp increase in bearish bets ahead of SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company.
Upcoming Earnings
SpaceX is scheduled to release its quarterly results on the evening of August 4, 2026, after the market close. The earnings release is expected to trigger heightened volatility, with analysts anticipating a possible short‑squeeze scenario.
Short Interest Metrics
Data from S3 Partners indicates that short interest now represents approximately 34% of SpaceX's float, a level considered extreme given that anything above 10% is typically high. Shares on loan amount to 95% of the available supply, meaning the market has nearly exhausted borrowable shares. Consequently, borrowing costs for short sellers have escalated sharply, reflecting the premium required to maintain these positions.
Company Fundamentals
Over the trailing twelve months, SpaceX has generated an estimated $19 billion in revenue. Despite this revenue base, the company’s market capitalization is reported at roughly $1.6 trillion, a valuation that short sellers argue leaves little margin for error, especially given ongoing heavy investments in Starship development and launch infrastructure.
Lock‑up and Share Supply
Lock‑up restrictions on insider shares are expected to begin expiring shortly after the earnings announcement, potentially releasing a significant volume of insider-held shares into the market for the first time.
Market Reaction and Risks
The combination of a high short‑interest ratio, near‑full utilization of borrowable shares, and soaring borrowing costs creates a technical setup that is highly vulnerable to a short squeeze. If SpaceX reports positive earnings, short sellers may rush to cover, potentially driving the stock sharply higher. Conversely, disappointing results could reinforce bearish positions.
Bottom Line
The article highlights a clash between a heavily shorted position—95% of borrowable float tied up by bears—and Elon Musk’s historical willingness to confront and squeeze short sellers. The outcome of tonight's earnings will determine which side bears the financial impact.