Overview
Morgan Stanley has increased its second‑quarter delivery forecast for Tesla Inc. to approximately 413,000 vehicles, up from its prior estimate of roughly 373,000 and above the market consensus of about 401,000 vehicles.
Sales Drivers
The upward revision is attributed to stronger registration and sales trends in Europe, where registrations in April were well above year‑ago levels, marking a recovery after a weak 2025 period. In China, May domestic sales rebounded compared with both the same month a year earlier and the previous month, ending a two‑month stretch of annual declines and indicating stabilising demand. U.S. sales through May remained softer than a year earlier, but regional data still suggest deliveries will exceed the brokerage’s earlier expectations.
Energy‑Storage Outlook
Morgan Stanley left its price target for Tesla unchanged at $415 per share, citing a more cautious stance on the company’s energy‑storage business. The bank now forecasts second‑quarter energy‑storage deployments of 11.8 GWh, below the Street estimate of roughly 14.3 GWh, reflecting a conservative view on project timing after first‑quarter delays. Full‑year installations are expected to reach about 55 GWh, broadly in line with consensus expectations.
Earnings Impact
The higher delivery outlook prompted Morgan Stanley to raise its earnings estimates. The firm increased its second‑quarter adjusted EBITDA forecast by 11% and modestly lifted its full‑year revenue and profit projections, driven by stronger vehicle volumes and slightly improved automotive margins.
Share Price Reaction
Tesla shares closed up 1.2% at $379.71 on Friday, after touching an intraday high of $387.80. In after‑hours trading the stock gained an additional 0.2% to $380.41.
Attribution
The article was reported by Roushni Nair.