Tesla Q2 Delivery Outlook and AI Focus
Barclays' research note projects Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to deliver approximately 418,000 vehicles in the second quarter, exceeding the Wall Street consensus of roughly 396,000 units. This delivery figure would represent a 17% increase over the first‑quarter total and a 9% rise compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Regional breakdowns show European deliveries expected to reach about 90,000 units, marking Tesla's strongest performance in the region since 2023, while Chinese deliveries are forecast at around 135,000 vehicles, supported by higher exports and improving local demand despite broader market weakness.
Total production for the quarter is anticipated to be about 430,000 vehicles, which is above market expectations, and inventory levels are described as remaining well below the build seen in the first quarter.
Barclays notes that profitability is likely to soften relative to the prior quarter because the one‑time warranty and tariff benefits that boosted first‑quarter results will not recur, and raw‑material costs are higher. The firm expects these headwinds to be partially offset by the stronger sales volumes, a more favorable regional mix, and slightly higher vehicle pricing in several markets.
Energy‑storage deployments are projected to rebound sharply to roughly 13.9 GWh, a 45% increase year‑on‑year, although margins in that segment are also expected to ease as the temporary benefits from the previous quarter fade.
Barclays maintains an Equal Weight rating on Tesla and a price target of $360, arguing that the stronger delivery outlook supports the company's growth trajectory even as investor attention has shifted toward its longer‑term artificial‑intelligence initiatives, including Robotaxi, Optimus and autonomous‑driving projects.