Truist Analyst Outlook for the U.S. Lodging Sector

Truist analyst C. Patrick Scholes forecasts revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth of 6‑8% for mid‑ and upper‑end U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter, with limited‑service properties expected to grow 2.5‑4.5%. These projections exceed both company guidance and consensus estimates by roughly 2‑4 percentage points. For 2027, Scholes projects RevPAR growth of 2.5‑4.5% for mid‑ and upper‑end properties and notes that January could be the strongest month of the cycle for upper‑end hotels.

Upcoming Earnings Releases

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts is scheduled to release its third‑quarter earnings on October 21, followed by Hilton Worldwide on October 27. The analyst believes hotel REITs are best positioned for outsized earnings beats due to greater exposure to the domestic upper‑upscale and luxury segments and higher operating leverage compared with hotel corporations and brands.

Updated Truist Estimates

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (NYSE:PEB)

  • Third‑quarter estimates raised to reflect higher RevPAR assumptions, though still considered conservative.
  • 2026 adjusted EBITDA remains at $361 million; adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share is $1.89.
  • 2027 adjusted EBITDA is $373 million; AFFO per share is $1.91.
  • Truist maintains a Buy rating with a $22 price target, derived from a 13.75× multiple of the 2027 estimated EBITDA.
  • The company reported July and August results tracking toward at least 6% RevPAR growth, surpassing its quarterly guidance of 1‑3%.

Park Hotels & Resorts Inc (NYSE:PK)

  • Estimates adjusted for revised room count and third‑quarter expense profile.
  • 2026 adjusted EBITDA lowered to $635 million from $637 million; AFFO per share reduced to $2.00 from $2.01.
  • 2027 adjusted EBITDA increased to $646 million from $642 million; AFFO per share raised to $1.80 from $1.78.
  • Truist retains a Hold rating with a $17 price target, based on an 11.5× multiple of the 2027 estimated EBITDA.
  • RevPAR grew 8.9% in July; August growth slowed to 2.6% due to hurricane impacts in Hawaii.

RLJ Lodging Trust (NYSE:RLJ)

  • Modest adjustments to 2026 estimates: higher third‑quarter RevPAR expectations but reduced EBITDA flow‑through.
  • 2026 adjusted EBITDA decreased to $350 million from $352 million; AFFO per share lowered to $1.47 from $1.49.
  • 2027 adjusted EBITDA reduced to $345 million from $348 million; AFFO per share declined to $1.32 from $1.34.
  • Truist maintains a Hold rating with an $11 price target, using an 11.5× multiple of the 2027 estimated EBITDA.

Market Snapshot

At the time of publication, the following ticker movements were noted: Pebblebrook Hotel Trust +2.36%, RLJ Lodging Trust –0.09%, Wyndham Hotels +0.53%, Hilton Worldwide –0.23%, and Park Hotels +0.72%.