Trump Put Requires Larger Market Sell‑off

Capital Economics says current market stress is far below the level that triggered the “Trump put” after April 2024’s 20% S&P drawdown.
30-year U.S. Treasury yields hit 2007 highs but rose slower than April, while swap spreads and implied volatility stay modest.
The dollar tracks interest‑rate differentials, and higher yields reflect tighter monetary policy expectations, not term‑premium, showing policy credibility remains intact.
S&P 500 stays near all‑time highs, far from the ~20% drop that prompted policy action, needing a sell‑off to trigger the “Trump put”.