TS Lombard strategist Daniel Von Ahlen recommends shorting USD/JPY, citing crowded short positions and expected BOJ rate hikes after a hawkish hold.
He notes stronger domestic macro environment, lower energy prices from US‑Iran de‑escalation, and potential US growth slowdown in Q2‑Q3 supporting yen strength.
Looser Japanese fiscal policy and recent upward JPY rate momentum reinforce BOJ policy normalization, while softening inflation poses a trade risk.
Commitment of traders data and TS Lombard’s tactical JPY indicator show meaningful short buildup, reducing case for further shorting.