UBS cut its June 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,000 and December target to 7,500, down from 7,300 and 7,700.
Higher oil prices from Middle East conflict, UBS says, will keep inflation firmer and delay Fed cuts to September and December 2026.
UBS kept its 2026 earnings estimate at $310 per share and retained an Attractive rating, citing profit growth and AI-driven semiconductor demand.
UBS noted that a VIX above 31, as seen in March, historically precedes average 22% S&P 500 returns over the next year.