UBS Cuts UK 2026 Growth to 0.6%

UBS lowered its 2026 UK GDP growth forecast to 0.6% from 1.1% due to soaring energy prices from the Iran conflict.
Oil prices have risen about 40% and wholesale gas about 50% since the conflict began, pressuring inflation and consumer spending.
UBS expects headline inflation to dip to ~2.5% in April then rise near 4% by year‑end, with core inflation ending 2026 below 3.2%.
The bank advises de‑risking, staying invested in high‑quality bonds, and sees recession unlikely despite the lower growth outlook.