UBS Highlights Top Copper Picks Ahead of Q2 Earnings Season
UBS has identified the leading copper producers to monitor as the sector prepares to release second‑quarter results, emphasizing operational updates and potential merger activity.
Freeport‑McMoRan is ranked as UBS’s top copper pick. The bank stresses that commentary on the Grasberg recovery remains the primary focus and expects incremental improvement in Q2, though it deems it too early for major updates. Possible upside could arise from changes in the wet versus dry drawpoint ratio and progress on regulator installation, which may affect guidance for 2026 and 2027. The company’s Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on August 3, 2026, comprising both a base and a variable component.
First Quantum Minerals is placed second. UBS anticipates a potentially soft Q2 but highlights continued attention on the Cobre Panamá mine and related news flow. The company is in discussions to sell a minority stake in its Taca Taca copper project in Argentina. Deutsche Bank upgraded First Quantum’s stock to Buy from Hold, citing an expected decision on the restart of the Cobre Panamá operation.
Anglo American is expected to face continued production challenges in Q2, with its 2026 guidance likely unchanged. UBS notes that earnings may be pressured by higher costs in both iron‑ore and copper, and the bank’s focus remains on progress regarding the proposed Teck merger.
Teck Resources is projected to deliver a third consecutive strong quarter. UBS points to the derisking of QB tailings for 2026, completion of rock bench number five, and steady or strong performance at the Highland Valley and Antamina operations. The bank sees upside potential to the 2026 guidance while monitoring the Anglo merger’s progress. Teck reported first‑quarter 2026 earnings and revenue that exceeded analyst expectations and announced a strategic investment agreement with the Canada Growth Fund for up to $400 million to expand critical‑minerals production at its Trail Operations facility.
Hudbay Minerals is UBS’s top mid‑cap pick. The bank believes that risks versus consensus are fully priced into the stock after softer performance at Constancia due to maintenance and at Manitoba because of grade sequencing, with effective tax rates ranging from 50 % to 55 %. UBS expects the Copper World definitive feasibility study to remain on track following earnings. Hudbay reported record first‑quarter revenue of $757.3 million, surpassing forecasts, and completed the acquisition of Arizona Sonoran Copper Company.