UBS Rating Upgrade and Price Target Increase
UBS upgraded Gurit Holding AG to a "buy" rating from "neutral" and raised its 12‑month price target to CHF 43, up from the previous CHF 25 target. The upgrade was issued by analysts Marti Queral Ferre and Joern Iffert, who applied a discounted cash‑flow model using a weighted average cost of capital of 8.5%, a terminal sales growth rate of 1.5% and a terminal EBITDA margin of 9%.
Valuation and Earnings Estimates
UBS noted that Gurit trades at roughly seven times its estimated 2026 EV/EBIT, representing about a 50% discount to the median valuation of Swiss small‑ and mid‑cap industrials, which UBS described as an attractive risk‑reward profile. The broker lifted its earnings‑per‑share estimates by 3% to 8% for the 2026‑2028 period and projects Gurit will achieve a 10% EBIT margin by 2028, above the Refinitiv‑based consensus estimate of 9.4%. UBS expects Gurit’s EBIT margin to be 5% and 8% higher than consensus for 2027 and 2028 respectively.
Drivers Behind the Upgrade
Three factors underpin the rating change. First, Gurit has streamlined its stock‑keeping units, including the Fiberline product line, and rationalised its contract portfolio, which is expected to improve scalability and margins. Second, following this rationalisation, the company is at an "organic sales inflection point" that should deliver positive growth in 2026. Third, after years of overcapacity in the wind market, supply and demand now appear more balanced, leading to more stable industry pricing.
Wind Market Outlook
UBS cited data showing that new global wind installations grew approximately 40% year‑on‑year in 2025. Industry forecasts indicate about 8% growth in 2026 globally, with a higher 20%‑25% growth rate when China is excluded. Based on International Energy Agency forecasts, UBS estimated that wind‑generated electricity supplying artificial‑intelligence infrastructure could experience a roughly 20% compound annual growth rate over the 2025‑2030 period.
Identified Downside Risks
The broker identified two primary risks. The first is the penetration of Chinese original‑equipment manufacturers into Western markets, particularly Europe. UBS does not expect a near‑term impact, citing the European Commission’s antidumping investigation into Goldwind and the United Kingdom’s blocking of a wind‑turbine factory from Ming Yang in Scotland in March 2026. The second risk is pricing pressure within the wind supply chain, which UBS believes is likely easing given stable average selling prices and rising margins at OEMs.
Near‑Term Financial Guidance
For the first half of 2026, UBS forecasts an EBIT margin of approximately 10%, up from 5.7% in the first half of 2025. The broker expects Gurit to reiterate its full‑year guidance for mid‑single‑digit organic growth and an EBIT margin above the 2025 level of 8.1%. Gurit is scheduled to report its first‑half 2026 results on 26 August 2026.